An Appraisal of the Preventive Effect of Statins on the Development of Graves' Ophthalmopathy: A Hospital-Based Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO) is an autoimmune inflammatory disorder observed in a substantial proportion of patients with Graves' disease (GD), with debilitating symptoms of disfiguring, periorbital pain, dry eyes, diplopia, and even visual disturbances. Previous studies involving Western populations have noted discrepancies in risk factors for GO. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the risk factors for GO development and the protective effect of statins in newly diagnosed patients with GD in Taiwan. METHODS: This retrospective case-control study was based on a tertiary center cohort involving patients with GD diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 at the National Taiwan University Hospital (n = 11,035). Patients who were diagnosed or treated elsewhere, had been followed up for less than 6 months or were with a diagnosis of orbital tumor were excluded. Overall, 3578 patients with GD met the inclusion criteria. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to ascertain the odds ratio (OR) of developing GO, with adjustment for sociodemographic factors, interventions for managing GD and thyroid hormone levels, to determine protective and risk factors for GO. RESULTS: In our multivariate model, the use of statins reduced the risk of GO development (OR 0.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.08-0.50; p < 0.001). Thyroid dysfunction including hyperthyroidism (OR 4.2; 95% CI 2.97-5.88; p < 0.001) and hypothyroidism (OR 4.7; 95% CI 3.02-7.19; p < 0.001) was associated with an increased risk of developing GO. Smoking status and lipid profile were not risk factors in our cohort. CONCLUSION: In newly diagnosed patients with GD, the use of statins decreased the risk of developing GO by 80%, whereas serum lipid levels were not considered risk factors. Further nationwide population-based studies may help clarify the differences in risk factors between various ethnic groups. TRAIL REGISTRATION: This trial was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of National Taiwan University Hospital (202202066RINC), retrospectively registered from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2019.

Quantitative bias analysis for external control arms using real-world data in clinical trials: a primer for clinical researchers.

Development of medicines in rare oncologic patient populations are growing, but well-powered randomized controlled trials are typically extremely challenging or unethical to conduct in such settings. External control arms using real-world data are increasingly used to supplement clinical trial evidence where no or little control arm data exists. The construction of an external control arm should always aim to match the population, treatment settings and outcome measurements of the corresponding treatment arm. Yet, external real-world data is typically fraught with limitations including missing data, measurement error and the potential for unmeasured confounding given a nonrandomized comparison. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) comprises a collection of approaches for modelling the magnitude of systematic errors in data which cannot be addressed with conventional statistical adjustment. Their applications can range from simple deterministic equations to complex hierarchical models. QBA applied to external control arm represent an opportunity for evaluating the validity of the corresponding comparative efficacy estimates. We provide a brief overview of available QBA approaches and explore their application in practice. Using a motivating example of a comparison between pralsetinib single-arm trial data versus pembrolizumab alone or combined with chemotherapy real-world data for RET fusion-positive advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) patients (1-2% among all NSCLC), we illustrate how QBA can be applied to external control arms. We illustrate how QBA is used to ascertain robustness of results despite a large proportion of missing data on baseline ECOG performance status and suspicion of unknown confounding. The robustness of findings is illustrated by showing that no meaningful change to the comparative effect was observed across several 'tipping-point' scenario analyses, and by showing that suspicion of unknown confounding was ruled out by use of E-values. Full R code is also provided.

Olanzapine within steroid-sparing antiemetic regimen to prevent chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting in patients with acute leukemia receiving multi-day intensive chemotherapy.

INTRODUCTION: Olanzapine use for chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV) in hematological malignancies, for multi-day chemotherapy, and with a steroid-sparing antiemetic strategy is poorly understood. This study investigated if olanzapine is associated with improved prevention of CINV when added to a steroid-sparing antiemetic regimen in patients with acute leukemia receiving intensive, moderately emetogenic, multi-day chemotherapy. METHODS: This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study in patients with acute leukemia. Patients who received olanzapine for CINV prevention were compared to those who did not. All patients received a 5-HT3 antagonist. Adult patients receiving moderately emetogenic, multi-day, intensive chemotherapy for acute leukemia were included. Patients were excluded if they received steroids greater than physiological doses during the study period. The primary endpoint was the complete response of CINV (no emesis or rescue antiemetic usage). RESULTS: This study included 58 patients, 12 patients received olanzapine and 46 patients were in the control group. Baseline demographics were similar. In the study population, 89.7% had acute myeloid leukemia, median age was 54 (interquartile range 42-63) years, 34.5% were female, 27.6% had prior CINV. Complete response of CINV was similar between groups, 4 (33.3%) and 15 (32.6%) patients in the olanzapine and control groups, respectively. Safety events were similar between groups. CONCLUSION: Patients with acute leukemia receiving multi-day intensive chemotherapy are at high risk for CINV. The limited data in this study suggests that olanzapine use within a steroid-sparing antiemetic regimen was well tolerated and associated with similar incidence and severity of CINV compared to the control group.

Predicting Progression of Oral Lesions to Malignancy Using Machine Learning.

OBJECTIVE: To use large-scale electronic health record (EHR) data to develop machine learning models predicting malignant transformation of oral lesions. METHODS: A multi-institutional health system database was used to identify a retrospective cohort of patients with biopsied oral lesions. The primary outcome was malignant transformation. Chart review and automated system database queries were used to identify a range of demographic, clinical, and pathologic variables. Machine learning was used to develop predictive models for progression to malignancy. RESULTS: There were 2192 patients with a biopsied oral lesion, of whom 1232 had biopsy proven oral dysplasia. There was malignant transformation in 34% of patients in the oral lesions dataset, and in 54% of patients in the dysplasia subset. Multiple machine learning-based models were trained on the data in two experiments, (a) including all patients with biopsied oral lesions and (b) including only patients with biopsy-proven dysplasia. In the first experiment, the best machine learning models predicted malignant transformation among the biopsied oral lesions with an area under the curve (AUC) of 86%. In the second experiment, the random forest model predicted malignant transformation among lesions with dysplasia with an AUC of 0.75. The most influential features were dysplasia grade and the presence of multiple lesions, with smaller influences from other features including anemia, histopathologic description of atypia, and other prior cancer history. CONCLUSION: With diverse features from EHR data, machine learning approaches are feasible and allow for generation of models that predict which oral lesions are likely to progress to malignancy. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3 Laryngoscope, 133:1156-1162, 2023.

Transportability of Overall Survival Estimates From US to Canadian Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With Implications for Regulatory and Health Technology Assessment.

Importance: The external validity of survival outcomes derived from clinical practice data from US patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is not known and is of potential importance because it may be used to support regulatory decision-making and health technology assessment outside of the US. Objective: To evaluate whether overall survival (OS) estimates for a selected group of patients with advanced NSCLC from a large US clinical practice database are transportable to Canadian patients receiving the same systemic therapies. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective multicenter cohort study used transportability analysis to assess whether adjustment for pretreatment characteristics of eligible patient cohorts could reliably approximate OS estimated from US-based samples to Canadian populations. A total of 17 432 eligible adult patients who were diagnosed de novo with advanced NSCLC on or after January 1, 2011, were included in the analysis and followed up until September 30, 2020. Because data on race and ethnicity were available in the US database but not the Canadian database and because racial and ethnic distribution was likely to be similar between US and Canadian patients, these characteristics were not analyzed. Exposures: Initiation of platinum-doublet chemotherapy or pembrolizumab monotherapy as first-line systemic treatment for advanced NSCLC. Main Outcomes and Measures: OS measured from the time of initiation of the respective treatment regimen. Results: Among 17 432 eligible patients, 15 669 patients from the US and 1763 patients from Canada were included in the analysis. Of those, 11 863 patients (sample size-weighted estimates of mean [SD] age, 68.0 [9.3] years; 6606 [55.7%] male; 10 100 from the US and 1763 from Canada) were included in the subset of patients with complete data for baseline covariates. A total of 13 532 US patients received first-line chemotherapy, and 2137 received first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy. Of those, 8447 patients (62.4%) in the first-line chemotherapy group and 1653 patients (77.3%) in the first-line pembrolizumab group had complete data on baseline covariates for outcome model estimation. A total of 1476 Canadian patients who received first-line chemotherapy and 287 patients who received first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy were identified from the target population. After standardization to baseline patient covariates in the Canadian cohorts, transported OS estimates revealed a less than 5% mean absolute difference from the observed OS in the target population (0.56% over 60 months of follow-up in the first-line chemotherapy group and 4.54% over 30 months of follow-up in the first-line pembrolizumab group). Negative control analysis using a mismatched outcome model revealed a 6.64% discrepancy and an incompatible survival curve shape. The results were robust to assumptions of random missingness for baseline covariates, to unadjusted differences in baseline metastases and comorbidities, and to differences in the standard of care between the US and Canada related to administration of second-line anti-programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 immunotherapy for patients who initiated first-line chemotherapy. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cohort study suggest that, under specific circumstances, OS estimates from US clinical practice data can be adjusted using baseline clinical characteristics to closely approximate OS in selected groups of Canadian patients with advanced NSCLC. These results may have implications for regulatory decision-making and health technology assessment in target populations outside of the US.

Addressing challenges with real-world synthetic control arms to demonstrate the comparative effectiveness of Pralsetinib in non-small cell lung cancer.

As advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) is being increasingly divided into rare oncogene-driven subsets, conducting randomised trials becomes challenging. Using real-world data (RWD) to construct control arms for single-arm trials provides an option for comparative data. However, non-randomised treatment comparisons have the potential to be biased and cause concern for decision-makers. Using the example of pralsetinib from a RET fusion-positive aNSCLC single-arm trial (NCT03037385), we demonstrate a relative survival benefit when compared to pembrolizumab monotherapy and pembrolizumab with chemotherapy RWD cohorts. Quantitative bias analyses show that results for the RWD-trial comparisons are robust to data missingness, potential poorer outcomes in RWD and residual confounding. Overall, the study provides evidence in favour of pralsetinib as a first-line treatment for RET fusion-positive aNSCLC. The quantification of potential bias performed in this study can be used as a template for future studies of this nature.

Plant cytokinesis and the construction of new cell wall.

Cytokinesis in plants is fundamentally different from that in animals and fungi. In plant cells, a cell plate forms through the fusion of cytokinetic vesicles and then develops into the new cell wall, partitioning the cytoplasm of the dividing cell. The formation of the cell plate entails multiple stages that involve highly orchestrated vesicle accumulation, fusion and membrane maturation, which occur concurrently with the timely deposition of polysaccharides such as callose, cellulose and cross-linking glycans. This review summarizes the major stages in cytokinesis, endomembrane components involved in cell plate assembly and its transition to a new cell wall. An animation that can be widely used for educational purposes further summarizes the process.

Association Between Smoking History and Overall Survival in Patients Receiving Pembrolizumab for First-Line Treatment of Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Importance: There is a need to tailor treatments to patients who are most likely to derive the greatest benefit from them to improve patient outcomes and enhance cost-effectiveness of cancer therapies. Objective: To compare overall survival (OS) between patients with a current or former history of smoking with patients who never smoked and initiated pembrolizumab monotherapy as first-line (1L) treatment for advanced non-small lung cancer (NSCLC). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study compared patients diagnosed with advanced NSCLC aged 18 or higher selected from a nationwide real-world database originating from more than 280 US cancer clinics. The study inclusion period was from January 1, 2011, to October 1, 2019. Exposures: Smoking status at the time of NSCLC diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: OS measured from initiation of 1L pembrolizumab monotherapy. Results: In this retrospective cohort study, a total of 1166 patients (median [IQR] age, 72.9 [15.3] years; 581 [49.8%] men and 585 [50.2%] women) were assessed in the primary analysis, including 91 patients [7.8%] with no history of smoking (ie, never-smokers) and 1075 patients [92.2%] who currently or formerly smoked (ie, ever-smokers). Compared with ever-smokers, never-smokers were older (median age [IQR] of 78.2 [12.0] vs 72.7 [15.5] years), more likely to be female (61 [67.0%] vs 524 [48.7%]) and to have been diagnosed with nonsquamous tumor histology (70 [76.9%] vs 738 [68.7%]). After adjustment for baseline covariates, ever-smokers who initiated 1L pembrolizumab had significantly prolonged OS compared to never-smokers (median OS: 12.8 [10.9-14.6] vs 6.5 [3.3-13.8] months; hazard ratio (HR): 0.69 [95% CI, 0.50-0.95]). This trend was observed across all sensitivity analyses for the 1L pembrolizumab cohort, but not for initiators of 1L platinum chemotherapy, for which ever-smokers showed significantly shorter OS compared with never-smokers (HR, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.07-1.33]). Conclusions and Relevance: In patients with advanced NSCLC who received 1L pembrolizumab monotherapy in routine clinical practices in the US, patients who reported a current or former history of smoking at the time of diagnosis had consistently longer OS than never-smokers. This finding suggests that in never-smoking advanced NSCLC, 1L pembrolizumab monotherapy may not be the optimal therapy selection, and genomic testing for potential genomically matched therapies should be prioritized over pembrolizumab in never-smokers.

Selection by design: Using job analysis to guide the selection of postgraduate pharmacy residents.

PURPOSE: To help ensure that we were accurately and consistently evaluating applicants to our postgraduate year 1 (PGY1) pharmacy residency program, we performed a job analysis to inform a redesign of our selection process. SUMMARY: A diverse panel of subject matter experts from our program was convened to develop a task inventory; a list of knowledge, skills, abilities, and other characteristics necessary for success in our program; and behavioral snapshots representing especially strong or weak resident performance (ie, critical incidents). After achieving a priori thresholds of consensus, these items were used to augment our application screening instrument (eg, development of anchored rating scales), build an online supplemental application consisting of a personality test and situational judgment test, develop a work sample consisting of a patient case presentation, and enhance the structure of our interviews (eg, by asking a consistent pattern of questions for all candidates). Preceptors reported that the redesigned process was more organized, easier to complete, and facilitated greater rating consistency. CONCLUSION: Job analysis represents an approach to designing selection processes that are more valid, reliable, transparent, and fair. Based on our experiences, recommendations for those who are considering changes to their selection process are provided.

Thromboelastography Changes of Whole Blood Compared to Blood Component Transfusion in Infant Craniosynostosis Surgery.

ABSTRACT: Surgical treatment of craniosynostosis with cranial vault reconstruction in infants is associated with significant blood loss. The optimal blood management approach is an area of active investigation. Thromboelastography (TEG) was used to examine changes in coagulation after surgical blood loss that was managed by transfusion with either whole blood or blood components. Transfusion type was determined by availability of whole blood from the blood bank.This retrospective study examined differences in posttransfusion TEG maximum amplitude (MA), a measure of the maximum clot strength, for patients transfused with whole blood or blood components. We included all patients less than 24 months old who underwent cranial vault remodeling, received intraoperative transfusions with whole blood or blood components, and had baseline and posttransfusion TEG measured. Whole blood was requested for all patients and was preferentially used when it was available from the American Red Cross.Of 48 eligible patients, 30 received whole blood and 18 received blood components. All patients received an intraoperative antifibrinolytic agent. The posttransfusion MA in the whole blood group was 61.8 mm (IQR 59.1, 64.1) compared to 57.9 mm (IQR 50.5, 60.9) in the blood components group (P = 0.010). There was a greater posttransfusion decrease in MA for patients transfused with blood components (median decrease of 7.7 mm [IQR -3.4, 6.3]) compared with whole blood (median decrease of 2.1 mm [IQR -9.6, 7.5] P < 0.001).Transfusion with blood components was associated with a greater decrease in MA that was likely related to decreased postoperative fibrinogen in this group. Patients who received whole blood had higher postoperative fibrinogen levels.

Keeping it real: implications of real-world treatment outcomes for first-line immunotherapy in metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer.

Tweetable abstract Recent RWD studies suggest that the performance of immunotherapy in NSCLC is not as good as that seen in RCTs. However, analyses using RWD (and their interpretation) require careful appraisal and quantification of possible sources of bias.

EPX: An R package for the ensemble of subsets of variables for highly unbalanced binary classification.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In binary classification problems with a rare class of interest, there is relatively little information available for the rare class to build a model. On the other hand, the number of useful variables to develop a model for classification can be high-dimensional. For example, in drug discovery, there are usually a very few bioactive compounds in a large chemical library, whereas thousands of potentially useful explanatory variables characterize a compound's chemical structure. The sparsity of information for the rare class of interest makes it difficult for the standard classification models to exploit the richness of the useful feature variables. Thus, the objective of this paper is to develop an R package which clusters the feature variables into diverse subsets to be aggregated into a powerful ensemble for the detection of a rare class object. METHODS: The ensemble of phalanxes (EPX) builds a classifier by exploiting the richness of feature variables using several diverse subsets of variables, called phalanxes, and outperforms many competitive state-of-the-art classification methods in terms of predictive ranking of the rare class of interest. RESULTS: We present an R package EPX which implements the algorithm to form the ensemble of phalanxes as well as its associated functions. We further show how the ensemble of phalanxes can be constructed using parallel computing to lower the computational burden given high-dimensional data. CONCLUSIONS: The R package EPX shows a flexible way of clustering feature variable space into smaller and diverse subsets of variables to develop an ensemble of phalanxes which better ranks a rare class object in a highly unbalanced two class classification problem. The ensemble EPX will be useful to detect the rare drug-like active biomolecules for development in drug discovery (Tomal et al., Mar. 2016) [1] and homologous proteins using similarity scores of amino acid sequences in protein homology (Tomal et al., 2019) [2]. The package EPX is freely available to download from CRAN (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=EPX).

The Impact of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk on Graft Failure in Deceased-Donor Renal Transplantation.

INTRODUCTION: Pretransplant cardiovascular risk may be amplified after renal transplant, but little is known about its impact on graft outcomes. RESEARCH QUESTION: The purpose of this study was to determine if pretransplant cardiovascular risk was associated with graft outcomes. DESIGN: This retrospective study included deceased-donor renal transplant recipients from 2010-2015. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk for patients without prior disease was calculated and patients were categorized into high (score >20%), intermediate (7.5-20%), and low risk (<7.5%). Patients with and without prior cardiovascular disease were also compared. The main endpoint was graft failure at 3-years post-transplant. Other outcomes included major adverse cardiovascular events, biopsy-proven rejection, and mortality. RESULTS: In patients without prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (N = 115), graft failure rates (4.5% vs 11.3% vs 12.5%; (P = 0.64) and major adverse cardiovascular events (9.1% vs 13.2% vs 5.0%; P = 0.52) were similar in the high, intermediate, and low risk groups. In those with prior disease (N = 220), rates of primary nonfunction (6.8% vs 1.7%; P = 0.04), major adverse cardiovascular events (7.3% vs 2.6%; P = 0.01), and heart failure (10.9% vs 3.5%; P = 0.02) were higher than those without cardiovascular; rates of major adverse cardiovascular events and heart failure were insignificant after adjusting for age, gender, and race. Other outcomes were not different. Outcomes did not differ based on pretransplant cardiovascular risk. DISCUSSION: Pretransplant atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was associated with increased early graft failure but similar outcomes at 3-years, suggesting cardiac risk alone should not exclude transplantation.

Pediatric airway management.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Children are at risk of severe hypoxemia in the perioperative period owing to their unique anatomy and physiology. Safe and effective airway management strategies are therefore key to the practice of pediatric anesthesia. The goal of this review is to highlight recent publications (2019-2021) aimed to advance pediatric airway safety and to highlight a proposed simple, pediatric-specific, universal framework to guide clinical practice. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent investigations demonstrate that infants with normal and difficult airways experience high incidences of multiple laryngoscopy attempts and resulting hypoxemia. Video laryngoscopy may improve tracheal intubation first attempt success rate in infants with normal airways. In infants with difficult airways, standard blade video laryngoscopy is associated with higher first attempt success rates over non-standard blade video laryngoscopy. Recent studies in children with Pierre Robin sequence and mucopolysaccharidoses help guide airway equipment and technique selection. Department airway leads and hospital difficult airway services are necessary to disseminate knowledge, lead quality improvement initiatives, and promote evidence-based practice guidelines. SUMMARY: Pediatric airway management morbidity is a common problem in pediatric anesthesia. Improvements in individual practitioner preparation and management strategies as well as systems-based policies are required. A simple, pediatric-specific, universal airway management framework can be adopted for safe pediatric anesthesia practice.

Independent risk factors associated with higher mortality rates and recurrence of brain abscesses from head and neck sources.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify the features and independent risk factors associated with recurrence and mortality in patients with brain abscesses of head and neck origin. STUDY DESIGN: We designed a retrospective study of patients diagnosed with a brain abscess at the Massachusetts General Hospital between 1980 and 2017. Inclusion criteria were complete medical records, including medical and surgical history; and radiographic and microbiologic data. Multinomial logistic regression and Gray's test were used to evaluate the independent variables associated with recurrence and mortality. RESULTS: Eighty-eight cases met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 48 patients (54.5%) were men (mean age 50.5 ± 18.8 years). Significant association between etiology and cultured organisms was found only in cases of neurosurgical intervention with staphylococcal or streptococcal isolates (P < .05). Seizure activity was the only significant predictor of recurrence. Predictors of mortality included advanced age (P = .005); staphylococcal infection (P = .029); low monocyte count (P = .004); hyponatremia (P = .002); elevated blood urea nitrogen (P = .000); elevated creatinine (P = .002); hyperglycemia (P = .023); and status at discharge (P = .000). CONCLUSIONS: Independent risk factors, such as low monocyte count, hyponatremia, renal dysfunction, and hyperglycemia, were found to be associated with higher mortality rates in patients with brain abscesses of head and neck origin. These abnormalities should be promptly recognized and aggressively treated.

Reporting and design of randomized controlled trials for COVID-19: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has mobilized global research at an unprecedented scale. While challenges associated with the COVID-19 trial landscape have been discussed previously, no comprehensive reviews have been conducted to assess the reporting, design, and data sharing practices of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). PURPOSE: The purpose of this review was to gain insight into the current landscape of reporting, methodological design, and data sharing practices for COVID-19 RCTs. DATA SOURCES: We conducted three searches to identify registered clinical trials, peer-reviewed publications, and pre-print publications. STUDY SELECTION: After screening eight major trial registries and 7844 records, we identified 178 registered trials and 38 publications describing 35 trials, including 25 peer-reviewed publications and 13 pre-prints. DATA EXTRACTION: Trial ID, registry, location, population, intervention, control, study design, recruitment target, actual recruitment, outcomes, data sharing statement, and time of data sharing were extracted. DATA SYNTHESIS: Of 178 registered trials, 112 (62.92%) were in hospital settings, median planned recruitment was 100 participants (IQR: 60, 168), and the majority (n = 166, 93.26%) did not report results in their respective registries. Of 35 published trials, 31 (88.57%) were in hospital settings, median actual recruitment was 86 participants (IQR: 55.5, 218), 10 (28.57%) did not reach recruitment targets, and 27 trials (77.14%) reported plans to share data. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of our study highlight limitations in the design and reporting practices of COVID-19 RCTs and provide guidance towards more efficient reporting of trial results, greater diversity in patient settings, and more robust data sharing.

The Landscape of Emerging Randomized Clinical Trial Evidence for COVID-19 Disease Stages: A Systematic Review of Global Trial Registries.

PURPOSE: A multitude of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have emerged in response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Understanding the distribution of trials among various settings is important to guide future research priorities and efforts. The purpose of this review was to describe the emerging evidence base of COVID-19 RCTs by stages of disease progression, from pre-exposure to hospitalization. METHODS: We collated trial data across international registries: ClinicalTrials.gov; International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Registry; Chinese Clinical Trial Registry; Clinical Research Information Service; EU Clinical Trials Register; Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials; Japan Primary Registries Network; German Clinical Trials Register (up to 7 October 2020). Active COVID-19 RCTs in international registries were eligible for inclusion. We extracted trial status, intervention(s), control, sample size, and clinical context to generate descriptive frequencies, network diagram illustrations, and statistical analyses including odds ratios and the Mann-Whitney U-test. RESULTS: Our search identified 11503 clinical trials registered for COVID-19 and identified 2388 RCTs. After excluding 45 suspended RCTs and 480 trials with unclear or unreported disease stages, 1863 active RCTs were included and categorized into four broad disease stages: pre-exposure (n=107); post-exposure (n=208); outpatient treatment (n=266); hospitalization, including the intensive care unit (n=1376). Across all disease stages, most trials had two arms (n=1500/1863, 80.52%), most often included (hydroxy)chloroquine (n=271/1863, 14.55%) and were US-based (n=408/1863, 21.90%). US-based trials had lower odds of including (hydroxy)chloroquine than trials in other countries (OR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.45-0.90) and similar odds of having two arms compared to other geographic regions (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.80-1.38). CONCLUSION: There is a marked difference in the number of trials across settings, with limited studies on non-hospitalized persons. Focus on pre- and post-exposure, and outpatients, is worthwhile as a means of reducing infections and lessening the health, social, and economic burden of COVID-19.

Utilizing Bayesian predictive power in clinical trial design.

The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework.

How do I Incorporate a two-sample blood type verification in a pediatric hospital?

BACKGROUND: The AABB (American Association of Blood Banks) and the College of American Pathologists (CAP) regulations call on blood banks to address the risk of misidentification of a patient's blood type, which can result in transfusion of a mismatched product. Transfusion of mismatched blood product is potentially fatal due to acute hemolytic transfusion reaction and is considered a preventable event. CAP regulations outline options to reduce risk of mistransfusion by either documenting the ABO group of the intended recipient on a second sample collected at a separate phlebotomy, or utilizing a mechanical barrier system or electronic identification verification system that ensures the patient from whom the pretransfusion specimen was collected is the same patient who is about to be transfused. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: An electronic or barrier system was not available for implementation at our institution, therefore we developed a protocol for a two-sample verification system. The first determination is performed on a current sample and the second by one of the following methods: (a) comparison with previous laboratory records, (b) testing a second sample collected at a time different from the first sample (i.e., laboratory specimen available with a different timestamp, or a new blood sample). RESULTS: We improved our transfusion process and implemented a policy to require a second sample to confirm a patient's blood type. We also implemented workflows to obtain blood type confirmation from history of a second blood type result from previous laboratory records, including a policy to accept previous blood type records from an outside laboratory. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a practice change for two-sample verification for type and screen in a large-scale pediatric hospital. We outline specific workflows for pre-operative and emergency transfusion scenarios, and pediatric-specific challenges.